Saturday, August 29, 2009

How we decide

Here is a review of the book "How we decide" ... it's a very interesting thought-provoking book that I highly recommend.





Why did the author write this book? What does he want me to do, believe or experience?

The book was written to give us more insights about how we make decisions. This is a complicated process with 2 main players, the subconscious brain and the rational brain. The author stresses the fallacy of the common belief that a rational decision should be devoid of feelings. He proves that both reason and feelings are necessary and we should listen to both while making decisions.

The subconscious mind has the capacity to deal with large data inputs, and can analyse them and detect patterns quite rapidly. It then delivers a message to the conscious brain in “sign- language”, namely as positive or negative feelings. This is our “gut feeling”, which is usually based on past experiences, and learning from mistakes. Morals and aesthetics belong to the realm of the subconscious mind. Seeing a painting or a moral question, one knows instantly if it is good or bad. In many cases, one would not really know why. It just “feels” good (or bad), right (or wrong).

However, our feelings might also be wrong and unreliable, as in the case of panic or in new problems which we didn’t encounter before. Additionally, we tend to escape from losses (or pain), and to overvalue immediate gains. This is when our rational mind should jump in and take over to really weigh the benefits against the losses.

The rational brain is however limited and can be overwhelmed by information in complicated problems. If the problem cannot be reduced to few important parameters, then the gut feeling can help with those multiparametric issues. Another problem arises with random processes, since our brain always tries to find patterns, so it ends imposing ones which donot actually exist.

Certainty (fanatism, stubbornness) is usually due to adopting a preconception without allowing the effective communication between the different parts of the brain. One accepts information that justifies the preconception and ignores the rest. The rational brain comes into play not as a scientist, but as a lawyer justifying this, actually irrational, position.

Healthy decision making is the one that allows the effective communication and interaction between reason and emotions. In important decisions, one should listen to emotions, but in some instance also let reason test if those emotions are right or wrong. There are rarely simple questions to complicated answers. Effective communication, weighing alternatives and embracing uncertainty should help reaching the correct decisions. Finally, mistakes are to be embraced as opportunities for learning … “Before your neurons can succeed, they must repeatedly fail. There are no shortcuts for this painstaking process”

Did he succeed? am I convinced?

The book is attractive and interesting ... it has many anecdotes which are well used to deliver the message and explain the point. The suthor succeeds in sheding light on the process of making decisions, and graps attention due to the many "surprises" which he describes, that feelings are important for rational decisions, that uncotrolled feelings could be problemating, that too much reason can be counterproductive. This is all presented in a simplified scientific manner, ornamented with anecdotes.

The only problem was that the thoughts or transitions between chapters did not seem to follow a logical sequence. It was, to a degree, disorganized.

What is the take home message?

1) Healthy decision making is a combination of listening to gut feelings and reason. One should be aware of the decision making process.
2) Mistakes are necessary for effective learning.
3) Surprise (unexpected patterns) are the best methods to raise attention.
4) Our brain always tries to find patterns. They are however lacking in random processes.

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